Paper #919

Título:

What explains the Great Moderation in the US? A structural analysis

Autor:

Fabio Canova

Fecha:

Marzo 2004

Resumen:

This paper investigates what has caused output and inflation volatility to fall in the US using a small scale structural model using Bayesian techniques and rolling samples. There are instabilities in the posterior of the parameters describing the private sector, the policy rule and the standard deviation of the shocks. Results are robust to the specification of the policy rule. Changes in the parameters describing the private sector are the largest, but those of the policy rule and the covariance matrix of the shocks explain the changes most.

Palabras clave:

New Keynesian model, Bayesian methods, Monetary policy, Great Moderation

Códigos JEL:

E52, E47, C53

Área de investigación:

Macroeconomía y Economía Internacional

Publicado en:

Journal of the European Economic Association, 7(4), 2009, 697-721

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