Paper #652

Título:

Evaluating Spanish pension expenditure under alternativa reform scenario

Autores:

Sergi Jiménez-Martín y Michele Boldrin

Data:

Noviembre 2002

Resumen:

In this paper we evaluate the quantitative impact that a number of alternative reform scenarios may have on the total expenditure for public pensions in Spain. Our quantitative findings can be summarized in two sentences. For all the reforms considered, the financial impact of the mechanical effect (change in benefits) is order of magnitudes larger than the behavioral impact or change in behavior. For the two Spanish reforms, we find once again that their effect on the outstanding liability of the Spanish Social Security System is essentially negligible: neither the mechanical nor the behavioral effects amount to much for the 1997 reform, and amount to very little for the 2002 amendment.

Palabras clave:

Social security, reform, Spain, option value

Códigos JEL:

H55, J26

Área de investigación:

Economía Laboral, Pública, de Desarrollo y de la Salud / Estadística, Econometría y Métodos Cuantitativos

Publicado en:

Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications, Jon Gruber and D. Wise (eds), Chicago University Press for the NBER, forthcoming in 2007

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