Paper #1747

Título:

Stock market spillovers via the global production network: Transmission of U.S. monetary policy

Autores:

Julian di Giovanni y Galina Hale

Fecha:

Octubre 2020

Resumen:

We quantify the role of global production linkages in explaining spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks to stock returns of 54 sectors in 26 countries. We first present a conceptual framework based on a standard open-economy production network model that delivers a spillover pattern consistent with a spatial autoregression (SAR) process. We then use the SAR model to decompose the overall impact of U.S. monetary policy on stock returns into a direct and a network effect. We find that up to 80% of the total impact of U.S. monetary policy shocks on average country-sector stock returns are due to the network effect of global production linkages. We further show that U.S. monetary policy shocks have a direct impact predominantly on U.S. sectors and then propagate to the rest of the world through the global production network. Our results are robust to controlling for correlates of the global financial cycle, foreign monetary policy shocks, and to changes in variable definitions and empirical specifications.

Palabras clave:

Global production network, asset prices, monetary policy shocks

Códigos JEL:

G15, F10 , F36

Área de investigación:

Macroeconomía y Economía Internacional

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