Paper #1503

Título:

Global imbalances revisited: The transfer problem and transport costs in monopolistic competition

Autores:

Paolo Epifani y Gino Gancia

Data:

Diciembre 2015

Resumen:

We study the welfare effects of trade imbalances in a two-sector model of monopolistic competition. As in perfect competition, a trade surplus involves an income transfer to the deficit country and possibly a terms-of-trade deterioration. Unlike the conventional wisdom, however, trade imbalances do not impose any double burden on surplus countries. This is because of a production-delocation effect, which leads to a reduction in the local price index. In the presence of intermediate goods, new results arise: A trade surplus may lead to an appreciation of the exchange rate, to a terms-of-trade improvement and even to a welfare increase. Numerical simulations show that, under realistic assumptions about preferences and technology, the beneficial price-index effect can significantly reduce the direct cost of the transfer.

Palabras clave:

Trade Imbalances; Trade Costs; Monopolistic Competition; Intermediate Goods.

Códigos JEL:

F1

Área de investigación:

Macroeconomía y Economía Internacional

Comentario:

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