Paper #1416

Título:

Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities

Autores:

Barbara Rossi y Tatevik Sekhposyan

Fecha:

Enero 2014

Resumen:

We propose a new framework for evaluating predictive densities in an eviroment where the estimation error of the parameters used to construct the densities is preserved asymptotically under the null hypothesis. The tests offer a simple way to evaluate the correct specification of predictive densities, where both the model specification and its estimation technique are evaluated jointly. Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting misspecification. An empirical application to density forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters shows the usefulness of our methodology.

Palabras clave:

Predictive Density, Probability Integral Transform, Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test, Cramér-von Mises Test, Forecast Evaluation

Códigos JEL:

C22, C52, C53

Área de investigación:

Macroeconomía y Economía Internacional / Estadística, Econometría y Métodos Cuantitativos

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