Paper #1404

Título:

Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

Autores:

Barbara Rossi y Atsushi Inoue

Fecha:

Abril 2012

Resumen:

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide range of window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the power to detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across different window sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of the methodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

Palabras clave:

Predictive Ability Testing, Forecast Evaluation, Estimation Window.

Códigos JEL:

C22, C52, C53

Área de investigación:

Macroeconomía y Economía Internacional / Estadística, Econometría y Métodos Cuantitativos

Publicado en:

Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 30 (3), 432-453, 2012

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