Paper #955

Title:

Further evidence on the statistical properties of real GNP

Author:

Laura Mayoral

Date:

May 2005 (Revised: February 2006)

Abstract:

The well-known lack of power of unit root tests has often been attributed to the short length of macroeconomic variables and also to DGP’s that depart from the I(1)-I(0) alternatives. This paper shows that by using long spans of annual real GNP and GNP per capita (133 years) high power can be achieved, leading to the rejection of both the unit root and the trend-stationary hypothesis. This suggests that possibly neither model provides a good characterization of these data. Next, more flexible representations are considered, namely, processes containing structural breaks (SB) and fractional orders of integration (FI). Economic justification for the presence of these features in GNP is provided. It is shown that the latter models (FI and SB) are in general preferred to the ARIMA (I(1) or I(0)) ones. As a novelty in this literature, new techniques are applied to discriminate between FI and SB models. It turns out that the FI specification is preferred, implying that GNP and GNP per capita are non-stationary, highly persistent but mean-reverting series. Finally, it is shown that the results are robust when breaks in the deterministic component are allowed for in the FI model. Some macroeconomic implications of these findings are also discussed.

Keywords:

GNP, unit roots, fractional integration, structural change, long memory, exogenous growth models

JEL codes:

C22, E23, C12

Area of Research:

Operations Management

Published in:

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2006, vol. 68, issue s1, pp. 901-920

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