Paper #1907

Title:

Hegemonic globalization

Authors:

Fernando Broner, Alberto Martin, Josefin Meyer and Christoph Trebesch

Date:

June 2025

Abstract:

How does the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of “hegemonic globalization” built on two premises: countries have heterogeneous policy preferences, and trade expands with policy alignment. Hegemons foster alignment, enabling globalization, while a shift to multipolarity risks fragmentation, at the expense of the declining hegemon and its allies. Empirically, we use international treaties as a proxy of alignment and construct the Global Treaty Database, covering 77,000 agreements from 1800–2020. The evidence supports the key elements of our theory: hegemons spur treaty-making, and treaties are a leading indicator of bilateral trade.

Keywords:

Hegemon, globalization, trade integration, international coercion, international treaties, cooperation, multipolar world

JEL codes:

F02, F15, F50, F51, F55, F60, P45.

Area of Research:

Macroeconomics and International Economics

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