Paper #1559

Title:

International spillovers and local credit cycles

Authors:

Yusuf Soner Baskaya, Julian di Giovanni, Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan and Mehmet Fatih Ulu

Date:

February 2017 (Revised: September 2020)

Abstract:

This paper studies the transmission of the Global Financial Cycle (GFC) to domestic credit market conditions in a large emerging market, Turkey, over 2003-13. We use administrative data covering the universe of corporate credit transactions matched to bank balance sheets to document four facts: (1) an easing in global financial conditions leads to lower borrowing costs and an increase in local lending; (2) domestic banks more exposed to international capital markets transmit the GFC locally; (3) the fall in local currency borrowing costs is larger than foreign currency borrowing costs due to the comovement of the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) premium with the GFC over time; (4) data on posted collateral for new loan issuances show that collateral constraints do not relax during the boom phase of the GFC.

Keywords:

Capital Flows, VIX, Risk Premium, Bank Credit, Firm Heterogeneity

JEL codes:

E0, F0, F1

Area of Research:

Macroeconomics and International Economics

Published in:

forthcoming in Review of Economic Studies

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