Paper #1258

Title:

ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin

Authors:

Fabio Canova and Matteo Ciccarelli

Date:

January 2011 (Revised: March 2012)

Abstract:

We investigate macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin, their similarities and convergence. A model with four indicators, roughly covering the West, the East and the Middle East and the North Africa portions of the Mediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980. Idiosyncratic causes still dominate domestic cyclical fluctuations in many countries. Convergence and divergence coexist are local and transitory. The cyclical outlook for the next few years is rosier for the East than for the West.

Keywords:

Bayesian Methods; Business cycles; Mediterranean basin; Developing and developed countries.

JEL codes:

C11; C33; E32.

Area of Research:

Macroeconomics and International Economics

Published in:

Journal of International Economics, 88, 162-175, 2012

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