Paper #1227

Title:

Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises

Authors:

Fernando Broner, Tatiana Didier, Aitor Erce and Sergio L. Schmukler

Date:

June 2010 (Revised: December 2012)

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the behavior of international capital flows by foreign and domestic agents, dubbed gross capital flows, over the business cycle and during financial crises. We show that gross capital flows are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. When foreigners invest in a country, domestic agents invest abroad, and vice versa. Gross capital flows are also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners invest more domestically and domestic agents invest more abroad. During crises, total gross flows collapse and there is a retrenchment in both inflows by foreigners and outflows by domestic agents. These patterns hold for different types of capital flows and crises. This evidence sheds light on the sources of fluctuations driving capital flows and helps discriminate among existing theories. Our findings seem consistent with crises affecting domestic and foreign agents asymmetrically, as would be the case under the presence of sovereign risk or asymmetric information.

Keywords:

Gross capital flows, net capital flows, domestic investors, foreign investors, crises.

JEL codes:

F21, F30, F32, G01

Area of Research:

Macroeconomics and International Economics

Published in:

Journal of Monetary Economics, Forthcoming

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