Paper #1127

Title:

Economic shocks and civil conflict: A comment

Author:

Antonio Ciccone

Date:

August 2008 (Revised: February 2011)

Abstract:

Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t-1 and t-2. I argue that this finding is driven by a positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t-2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, one might have expected MSS’s finding to reflect a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t-1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall.

Keywords:

Transitory shocks, mean reversion, rainfall, civil conflict.

JEL codes:

O0, P0, Q0

Area of Research:

Macroeconomics and International Economics

Published in:

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 3 (4), 215-227, 2011

Download the paper in PDF format