Paper #1108

Title:

Emotion and reason in everyday risk perception

Authors:

Robin Hogarth, Mariona Portell, Anna Cuxart and Gueorgui I. Kolev

Date:

September 2008 (Revised: July 2009)

Abstract:

Although research has documented the importance of emotion in risk perception, little is known about its prevalence in everyday life. Using the Experience Sampling Method, 94 part-time students were prompted at random – via cellular telephones – to report on mood state and three emotions and to assess risk on thirty occasions during their working hours. The emotions – valence, arousal, and dominance – were measured using self-assessment manikins (Bradley & Lang, 1994). Hierarchical linear models (HLM) revealed that mood state and emotions explained significant variance in risk perception. In addition, valence and arousal accounted for variance over and above “reason” (measured by severity and possibility of risks). Six risks were reassessed in a post-experimental session and found to be lower than their real-time counterparts. The study demonstrates the feasibility and value of collecting representative samples of data with simple technology. Evidence for the statistical consistency of the HLM estimates is provided in an Appendix.

Keywords:

Representative design, experience sampling method, risk perception; emotional reactions, self-assessment manikins (SAM), retrospective judgment, multilevel analysis

JEL codes:

C39, C93, M10

Area of Research:

Behavioral and Experimental Economics

Published in:

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 24 (2), 202-222, March 2011

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