Department of Economics and Business - Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Title:: Estimating the effect of transitory economic shocks on civil conflict
Author:: Antonio Ciccone
Date:: June 2011
Abstract:: This note tries to clarify some remaining issues in the debate on the effect of income shocks on civil conflict. Section 1 discusses the discrepant findings on the effect of rainfall shocks on civil conflict in Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011) and Ciccone (2011). Section 2 develops an instrumental variables approach to estimate the effect of transitory (rainfall-driven) income shocks on civil conflict and contrasts the conclusions with those of Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) and Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011). Throughout, the note uses the data of Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti to focus on the methodological issues at the core of the debate (for results using the latest data see Ciccone, 2011).
Keywords:: transitory economic shocks, conflict, weather,
JEL codes:: D74; E32; O11; O17; O47.
Area of Research:: Macroeconomics and International Economics
Published in:: Review of Economics and Institutions, 4 (2), 1-14, 2013

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