Paper #1053

Title:

International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

Authors:

Markus Brückner and Antonio Ciccone

Date:

October 2007 (Revised: August 2009)

Abstract:

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

Keywords:

Commodity prices, civil war, Sub-Saharian Africa

JEL codes:

O0, P0, Q0

Area of Research:

Macroeconomics and International Economics

Published in:

The Economic Journal, 120 (544), 519-534, 2010

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