Paper #924

Títol:

Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles

Autors:

Fabio Canova, Matteo Ciccarelli i Eva Ortega

Data:

Febrer 2003

Resum:

This paper examines the properties of G-7 cycles using a multicountry Bayesian panel VAR model with time variations, unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences. We demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and show that country specific indicators play a much smaller role. We detect differences across business cycle phases but, apart from an increase in synchronicity in the late 1990s, find little evidence of major structural changes. We also find no evidence of the existence of an Euro area specific cycle or of its emergence in the 1990s.

Paraules clau:

Business cycle, G7, indicators, Panel Data, Bayesian methods

Codis JEL:

C11, E32

Àrea de Recerca:

Macroeconomia i Economia Internacional

Publicat a:

Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(3), 2007, 850-878

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