Paper #1461

Títol:

Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?

Autors:

Domenico Ferraro, Ken Rogoff i Barbara Rossi

Data:

Maig 2011

Resum:

We show the existence of a very short-term relationship at the daily frequency between changes in the price of a country's major commodity export price and changes in its nominal exchange rate. The relationship appears to be robust and to hold when we use contemporaneous (realized) commodity price changes in our regression. However, when we use lagged commodity price changes, the predictive ability is ephemeral, mostly appearing after instabilities have been appropriately taken into account.

Paraules clau:

forecasting, oil prices, exchange rates.

Codis JEL:

F31, F37, C22, C53.

Àrea de Recerca:

Macroeconomia i Economia Internacional / Estadística, Econometria i Mètodes Quantitatius

Publicat a:

Journal of International Money, vol. 54 (1), pp. 116-141, 2015

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