Paper #1084

Títol:

Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited

Autors:

Fabio Canova i Luca Gambetti

Data:

Novembre 2007

Resum:

We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations explain the dynamics of inflation and of interest rates but their importance is roughly unchanged over time. Systems with and without expectations display similar reduced form characteristics. Including or excluding expectations hardly changes the economic explanation of the Great Moderation. Results are robust to changes in the structure of the empirical model.

Paraules clau:

Indeterminacy, Expectations, Term structure, Structural VARs, Sunspot

Codis JEL:

C11, E12, E32, E62

Àrea de Recerca:

Macroeconomia i Economia Internacional

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